MAKING THE CASE FOR “REAL GDP” OF -8.1% FOR Q3

*For proof and citations please watch video.

 

 

Today we are going to address the latest GDP numbers.

Before I do so I’d like to give a quick shoutout to Andrew Torba of GAB.AI.  Gab is a new social media platform that will not censor or manipulate its users by giving them fake trending news.  I’d would also like to give a shout out to Cody Wilson who told me about the soybean connection over at www.defdist.org

 

In any event, the GDP that was just released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis came in at 2.9%, which is the best print in nearly 2 years.

This coincides with the Consumer confidence report that is currently at it’s the lowest reading in 2 years… so funny how that works.

Things have never been better in the last 2 years, but people have never felt worse off… sort of reminiscent of the entire Obama administration.

 

Let’s do a little deeper dive into the number’s

 

According to zerohedge, which is getting its data straight from the BEA.   1/3 of the q3 GDP growth was due to soybean exports!!!

Apparently, South America had severe growing conditions, which accounted for monstrous, surge in soybean exports.

 

Does anyone want to take a guess at what else helped the GDP… if you guessed your Obamacare price increases, then you’re a winner.

 

The other reason zerohedge pointed out what inventory build.  Anytime there is an inventory build that is stealing productivity from the future.

Meaning if you’ve let’s say amassed 25k shirts and you’re a dept store…  Well, now you need to sell those shirts before you buy anymore.

Ok so backing out Soybeans, inventory, and Obamacare, the GDP growth would be .9%

But wait there’s more.

When you calculate the GDP, you have to take the current dollar GDP increase of 4.4% and subtract the GDP deflator which is the inflation rate.  The deflator was 1.4% for q3 so with rounding that gives you a 2.9% increase.      The deflator in q2 was a little more believable at 2%

 

I mean if things only went up 1.4% vs 2% from the previous quarter then why is consumer confidence plunging?

For anyone who wants to see how the inflation rate is rigged please check out my article where I definitely break this down and a video will be forthcoming on this subject.   *How GDP is Rigged

 

Best data for real inflation data is shadowstats.com

They use the government s own methodologies from the 80’s and 90’s to give more of an apples to apples comparison.

Go to graph

  1990’s =5% ish

1980 = 9%ish

Ok so even if we used the govt’s same cooked # from Q2 then the GDP increase would be a measly .3%

 

If we used the 1990’s methodology the GDP would be -2.1 without taking into account the soybean miracle, inventory build and Obamacare

Using 1980’s methodology it would’ve been -6.1%

Now if we back out the 3 miracles previously discussed the Current GDP would’ve been .9% with the current deflator

With the 1990’s deflator, the current GDP would be -4.1

1980’s    -8.1

 

And there you have an alternate perspective on the GDP.

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Cheers,

The Libertarian Advisor

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